What USDA's 2026/27 Vietnam coffee outlook means for importers
Higher projected exports improve availability, but compliance, quality and market diversification remain central to buying strategy.
The forecast
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecast Vietnam's marketing-year 2026/27 coffee exports at 28.95 million bags green-bean equivalent, up 2% from its 2025/26 estimate and 15% above 2024/25. The report also highlighted strong first-half 2025/26 shipments and export growth across large European markets, the United States, Japan and several Asian destinations.
Availability is only one part of procurement
A larger crop or export forecast can ease supply anxiety, but procurement quality is determined contract by contract. Buyers still need clarity on crop year, grade, screen, defects, moisture, process, warehouse condition, packing and documentation. The forecast should inform planning volume, not replace due diligence.
EUDR raises the operational bar
USDA also pointed to the EU Deforestation Regulation as a factor shaping Vietnam's export performance. European buyers should therefore treat geolocation, chain-of-custody information and supplier readiness as sourcing criteria alongside cup quality and price.
